Q2…. As We Move to Peak Interest Rates… A Robust and Resilient World Economy…
As we make our way through the second quarter, US equities are up by just over 8% year-to-date, while European markets have appreciated by 15%, both in local currency terms. The S&P 500 and the EuroStoxx 50 indices have each seen one of their strongest starts to a year in over a decade. Recently it has been a case of the larger you are the better you have performed, at least with regard to US stocks.
It is worth noting that so far, 2023 has largely been a mirror image of last year, with both equity and bond markets making, and holding on to, most of the gains made early in the year. Of course, certain new risks have become apparent in 2023, and we will explore some of these later on in this document. However, investors for the most-part have remained positive and risk assets have remained resilient, even in the face of higher interest rates and the prospect of a US recession towards the back end of the year. Corporate earnings have been stronger than expected, Europe has avoided a winter recession that was forecast and feared by many, and policymakers have been quick to step in when concerns were growing around US bank deposits.
Of course, certain new risks have become apparent in 2023, and we will explore some of these in more detail in this update.
We would like to state that we believe any potential recession seen in the US or beyond during the second half of this year would be mild in nature. Q1 real GDP results for both the Eurozone and US came out in positive territory, employment still remains close to full across developed markets, and households still have excess cash savings left over from the pandemic era despite the higher cost of living seen over the past 12 months.
Read the full investment update below or download hereSSP-INTERIM-UPDATE-MAY-2023