Goldman Sachs Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs report anticipates the second Trump administration will bring higher tariffs on China and autos, lower immigration, fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing.
These policies are expected to drive US economic growth to 2.5% in 2025. Outperforming other developed markets. However, risks include potential large across-the-board tariffs that could negatively impact growth. The Euro area and China face structural headwinds and trade policy uncertainties, with GDP forecasts at 0.8% and 4.5%, respectively. US core PCE inflation is projected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025.
GS-Outlook-25-3source: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-research/macro-outlook-2025–tailwinds–probably–trump-tariffs
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